(NewsNation) — With inflation on the rise, retirees are likely to see a bump in their Social Security checks next year that’s larger than previously expected.
A new estimate from The Senior Citizens League puts Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, at 2.7% in 2026 — slightly above this year’s 2.5% increase.
That projection is based on the latest inflation data and would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers by $54, from $2,008 to $2,062, the senior advocacy group said.
Thursday’s inflation report showed consumer prices rose 2.9% in August from a year earlier — the fastest annual pace since January. That’s bad news for shoppers, but for seniors, it could mean bigger Social Security checks in 2026.
The government determines the COLA by comparing the average inflation rate from July to September with the same period in the previous year. More precisely, the calculation is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, which rose at an annual pace of 2.8% in August.
With July and August inflation data in, the COLA measurement window has one month left. September’s numbers will determine whether the final adjustment lands above or below the current 2.7% forecast.
A 2026 COLA of 2.7% would be slightly higher than this year’s 2.5% adjustment, but below the 3.2% increase in 2024. Over the last 20 years, the COLA has averaged 2.6%, according to The Senior Citizens League.
The Social Security Administration will announce the official COLA in mid-October; the increase will go into effect in January 2026.
